The Nile Cannot Be Governed by Unilateral Vetoes: A Response to Egypt's Position on Future Ethiopian Dams

Abebe S. Gebregiorgis, PhD, P.E., CFM Recent remarks by Egypt's Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Hani Sewilam, stating that Egypt "will not allow" Ethiopia to construct additional dams on the Nile have once again highlighted the deep political divide surrounding the management of one of the world's most important transboundary rivers.

While Egypt views such statements as necessary to safeguard its water security, they raise an important legal and diplomatic question: Can one riparian state unilaterally prevent another sovereign state from developing water infrastructure on an international river?

From the standpoint of modern international water law, the answer is no.

International Water Law Does Not Grant a Veto

Contemporary international water law is founded on cooperation rather than unilateral control. The principles reflected in the 1997 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses emphasize:

• equitable and reasonable utilization;

• the obligation to prevent significant transboundary harm;

• prior notification and consultation for planned measures; and

• cooperation among riparian states.

  
  

These principles do not establish a legal right for downstream countries to veto upstream development projects. Instead, they require states to negotiate in good faith and seek solutions that balance the legitimate interests of all basin countries.

Whether or not individual states are parties to the Convention, many of these principles are widely regarded as reflecting customary international water law.

Development Rights Extend to All Riparian States

The Nile Basin is shared by eleven countries whose populations and development needs have changed dramatically over the past century.

Like every other riparian nation, Ethiopia possesses the sovereign right to pursue development consistent with international law. Hydropower development, including projects such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), represents a non-consumptive use of water because the water continues downstream after electricity generation.

This does not eliminate the need for cooperation or coordinated reservoir operations, particularly during prolonged droughts. However, it also does not imply that upstream development requires the approval of downstream states.

The Challenge of Binding Water Release Guarantees

Egypt has repeatedly called for legally binding commitments governing reservoir operations and drought management.

Cooperative data sharing, advance notification, and coordinated operation are all reasonable objectives that can strengthen trust among riparian states.

However, guarantees regarding fixed downstream releases during severe drought present scientific and hydrological challenges. Reservoir releases ultimately depend on inflows, which are determined by rainfall over the Ethiopian Highlands. During prolonged drought, inflows decline naturally, reducing the amount of water available for both hydropower generation and downstream release.

For this reason, many water resource experts advocate adaptive operating rules that respond to actual hydrological conditions rather than fixed release obligations that may become impossible to satisfy under extreme climatic conditions.

Moving Beyond Historical Narratives

Much of today's disagreement reflects differing interpretations of historical agreements.

Egypt has traditionally relied on the 1929 and 1959 Nile agreements, while several upstream countries argue that these treaties were concluded without their participation and therefore should not determine contemporary water allocation across the basin.

Regardless of these differing legal positions, the demographic, economic, and climatic realities of the Nile Basin have changed substantially. Long-term water security cannot be achieved by relying solely on historical arrangements or unilateral declarations.

A Cooperative Future for the Nile

The future of the Nile depends on cooperation rather than confrontation.

A durable framework should include:

• recognition of equitable and reasonable utilization for all riparian states;

• transparent data sharing and technical cooperation;

• adaptive drought management based on observed hydrological conditions;

• joint scientific studies and confidence-building measures; and

• continued dialogue that respects the sovereignty and legitimate interests of every basin country.

The Nile has sustained civilizations for thousands of years. Its future should not be shaped by unilateral declarations or claims of exclusive authority, but by cooperative governance grounded in science, international law, and mutual respect.

As pressures from climate change, population growth, and economic development continue to intensify, the basin's greatest challenge is no longer determining who controls the Nile - it is ensuring that all eleven riparian states can share its benefits peacefully and sustainably.